A multi billion-pound order for a second tranche of Typhoon combat jets for Saudi Arabia could be delayed due to the recent death of the country's Air Force commander, according to the new boss of the British government's defense and security export arm.
"It does change the dynamic as power is closely held by a small group [in Saudi Arabia]. I don't believe it will change the sentiment to the Typhoon — they are committed to the program — but in terms of timing it might. They will have to reassess where they are, reorganize, get their structures right. It does have an effect. We don't know what that is yet; we will have to wait and see," Stephen Phipson, the head of the Defence & Security Organisation, told reporters at a briefing during the Paris Air Show on Tuesday.
Saudi Air Force commander Lt. Gen. Mohammed Al-Shaalan's death was announced June 10 after little more than a year in post.
Official reports said he died of a heart attack while out of the country on business although there have been unverified rumors he was killed by Yemeni Houthi rebels in an attack on an Air Force base.
The British secured a £4.4 billion (US $6.8 billion) deal in 2007 to supply 72 Typhoons to the Saudis.
Deliveries continue
Talks on a second tranche of 48 or so jets have been underway with BAE Systems, the British government and the Saudis for several years.
No date for conclusion of a second deal has been mentioned officially, but industry officials and others have previously hinted they hope to wrap up the discussions by the end of this year.
Phipson said the aircraft and the accompanying support effort by industry contractors and the British Ministry of Defence had earned high marks from the Saudis during missions it has been conducting in Yemen and against Islamic State targets in the Middle East.
The British export chief said a new order could keep production lines active for four to five years if it is similar to the first deal.
As things stand, Typhoon assembly across lines in Britain, Germany, Italy and Spain are set to close in 2018 without new orders, although Eurofighter industry partners BAE, Airbus and Finmeccanica are looking at other options to keep work in the factories.
Phipson said they had about another 18 months to land new orders to retain manufacturing capability.
"We don't have to worry too much about it until the end of next year, then we do need to make sure we have something on the books if we are to sustain manufacture," he said.
Typhoon has had a bad run in recent months with the Dassault Aviation Rafale jet scoring export success in Egypt, Qatar and India, although not all the deals are yet signed and sealed.
Phipson sought to dispel the notion that Typhoon was on the back foot, saying he remained upbeat about the fighter's export chances, including in countries that have already declared for Rafale.
"I'm still positive that despite some people thinking it's all over, it's not all over," he said.
After a more than 30-year history working with the French government, it was "pretty inevitable" Qatar was going to buy some Rafales for their fleet, he said
"But we are getting all the signals they are still considering whether or not to order Typhoon, and we will continue to work very closely with the Qatari government and give them the option of Typhoon for the next time they buy, which will probably be next year," Phipson said.
India remains a target as well for Typhoon despite the Indian government opting to buy 36 Rafales in the last few weeks.
"They have made their first selection for a very limited number of Rafales compared with an [original] requirement for 126 jets. I was in India last week talking to them and the competition is still open on what they do for the second and maybe even third tranche procurement of fast jets," he said.
The Indian government selected the Rafale for its medium multirole-combat aircraft requirement in 2012 but were still negotiating price and other terms, such as local assembly, when New Delhi recently and unexpectedly ordered 36 jets straight off the Dassault production line.
That's clouded the future of the original 126 aircraft order.
Phipson said the experience of BAE and engine-maker Rolls-Royce in supporting the Indian manufacturing of the Hawk jet trainer would stand the bid in good stead if negotiations were reopened.
Aside from the Saudi deliveries, Phipson said there is "a good chance" of a deal with Bahrain and a possible deal with Malaysia.
"It would have been better to have some early Typhoon announcements but maybe we will have one before the end of the year. I still remain optimistic," he said.
The UK government export boss, who only took up the post earlier this year, declined to comment in detail on the status of an export campaign in Kuwait because that is being led by the Italian government and Finmeccanica.
"We have had a very good meeting with the Italian government at the show and they assure us the campaign is going very well," he said.
Defense News reported recently that Typhoon talks with Kuwait were proceeding.
Boeing's F/A-18 is also said to be in advanced discussions with Kuwait. Industry executives have previously talked about a possible split buy in Kuwait and Qatar.
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