Stop Freaking Out — Iran’s Military

Article written to pacify the hawks against the Iranian nuke deal.

Oil prices will continue to fall benefiting Asian nations

Iran and the P5+1 coalition of six major powers have reached a historic deal to halt Tehran’s nuclear enrichment program. Some months from now, as Iran verifies compliance with the agreement, a series of debilitating international sanctions targeting the country’s economy and military will disappear.

To be sure, the deal is good for the Iranian military. It will free Iran to make arms deals abroad, replace some of its largely 1970s and 1980s-vintage technology and increase revenue through oil exports. In short, Tehran’s armed forces are likely to strengthen.

“If the deal is reached and results in sanctions relief, which results in more economic power and more purchasing power for the Iranian regime, it’s my expectation that it’s not all going to flow into the economy to improve the lot of the average Iranian citizen,” Gen. Martin Dempsey, America’s top military officer, said during a June 9 visit to Jerusalem.

“I think they will invest in their surrogates; I think they will invest in additional military capability.”But that’s a different thing from building up a major war machine, something which many of the deal’s critics fear.

Worry not. It will take years for Tehran to rebuild its lagging economy — and the mullahs are far from catching up to their regional rivals in terms of military spending. Of course, the biggest development is that Iran now won’t have a nuclear weapon.

The United States and most Western governments halted sales of military hardware to Iran following the 1979 overthrow of the Shah and the rise of an Islamic theocracy. It’s highly unlikely any of these governments — including the U.S. — will sell weapons to Iran anytime soon after the deal.

While the U.S. has sought rapprochement with Iran, Washington remains closely allied with Saudi Arabia and its presence in the wider Middle East depends on major naval and air bases in Bahrain and Qatar. No American administration will soon scuttle these alliances. To do so would require a major realignment of the Middle Eastern political order.

But the deal will open Iran up to make arms deals with Russia and China — both traditional weapons suppliers to Tehran. The Kremlin has been keen to sell Iran S-300 missiles, one of its deadliest and longest-range surface-to-air weapons. In the 1990s, Iran bought up Russian-made T-72 tanks, armored vehicles and MiG-29 fighters.But in 2010, these sales came to an abrupt halt. The United Nations Security Council adopted Resolution 1929 blocking major arms sales to Iran including sales of missiles, tanks, warplanes and warships.

In 2013, the P5+1 agreed with Iran to lift these sanctions in exchange for a nuclear deal — a concession on the part of the alliance — and most likely a condition for keeping Russia and China from leaving the negotiating table. Without diplomats from Moscow and Beijing taking part, the deal certainly wouldn’t have been reached.

The problem is that Iran has to pay for its new weapons. How? Oil exports. About 65 percent of Tehran’s state revenues come from oil rents — which also helps pay for its military. A deal will likely pave the way for increased Iranian oil and natural gas exports abroad, which means more revenues for Iran.


https://medium.com/war-is-boring/stop-freaking-out-iran-s-military-is-weak-even-without-sanctions-16e84e738c06